UConn Huskies (+500)
The defending champion UConn Huskies remain the consensus favorite across all major sportsbooks to win the 2024 NCAA Tournament.
Currently holding +500 odds, UConn has been at the top of the futures board since they cut down the nets last April.
After reloading with the No. 2 recruiting class in 2023, UConn entered this season with some key returners mixed in.
The well-rounded Huskies rank top 15 in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency at KenPom. They are battle-tested as well, with an overtime win over Tennessee and a road win against a veteran Creighton team.
With Dan Hurley at the helm and much of last year’s title-winning core still intact, UConn remains in pole position to be the first back-to-back champion since Florida in 2006 and 2007.
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Houston Cougars (+600)
Despite being the No. 1 team for much of 2023-2024, the Houston Cougars have been playing second fiddle to UConn in the odds market.
With +600 odds, Houston is the biggest threat to UConn achieving a repeat.
The Cougars locked up another conference regular season title under Kelvin Sampson and have been steamrolling opponents all season. Houston’s calling card is still its defense, ranking No. 1 in adjusted defensive efficiency and allowing just 54.7 ppg (2nd in NCAA).
If any team can match UConn in talent and experience, it’s this dominant Houston squad that came just short of a Final Four trip last season.
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Purdue Boilermakers (+750)
Of the teams expected to snag No. 1 seeds on Selection Sunday, Purdue has been the most overlooked in the odds market. The Boilermakers hold the third shortest odds at +750 and have an intriguing profile.
Purdue’s calling card is obviously center Zach Edey, the most dominant big man in college hoops.
However, unlike last season when Purdue flamed out early as a No. 3 seed, Edey now has a strong supporting cast around him.
The additions of guards Fletcher Loyer and David Jenkins Jr. have boosted Purdue’s guard play tremendously. Loyer specifically helps get Edey the ball in better positions to facilitate the offense. This is a much more balanced Purdue attack, and its only improved as the year’s gone on.
If guard Braden Smith can regain his early season form after returning from injury, watch out for this experienced and battle-tested Purdue team to make a deep March run.
North Carolina Tar Heels (+1600)
The defending national runners-up, North Carolina looked bound for a Final Four repeat early in 2023-2024. They raced out to a 13-1 start and had huge wins over Indiana, Ohio State, Michigan, and Alabama.
However, the Tar Heels then struggles mightily in ACC play. Star big man Armando Bacot has dealt with nagging injuries, and the inconsistent backcourt play has hurt UNC’s continuity.
Despite its midseason struggles, North Carolina should not be overlooked at +1600 odds.
The Heels have proven capable of beating elite teams, and a healthy Bacot surrounded by shooters like Caleb Love and RJ Davis can match any offense.
If UNC puts the pieces together at the right time like Connecticut did a year ago, don’t be shocked to see the Heels back contending for their 7th championship.
Alabama Crimson Tide (+2000)
The SEC regular season co-champs have been lingering in March Madness odds markets despite another terrific season under Nate Oats.
Alabama is one of the most explosive offensive teams in the country, ranking inside the top 10 in adjusted offensive efficiency, points per game (86.7) and 3-pointers made per game (10.2 – 2nd in NCAA). The backcourt trio of Mark Sears, Jahvon Quinerly and Jaden Bradley can match any guard rotation.
While the Tide struggle on defense at times compared to other contenders, their abundance of shotmakers is a threatening matchup.
With legitimate Final Four aspirations and quadrants 1 + 2 wins over Houston and Kansas, don’t overlook this battle-tested Bama team.
Dark Horses With Future Value
When looking for dark horses outside of the top contenders, Arizona (+2000), Creighton (+2500), and Iowa State (+4000) stand out.
Arizona remains ultra-talented despite losing Bennedict Mathurin to the NBA Draft. Averaging over 85 points per game, the Wildcats have proven capable of beating elite teams when their offense flows.
Creighton lacks a real superstar, but the Jays have impressive depth and experience led by veteran Ryan Kalkbrenner. If Creighton gets hot from 3-point range, they will be a threat.
Iowa State has been rapidly rising up odds boards thanks to their elite defense and improved offensive play. If projected first round pick Gabe Kalscheur gets healthy for March, the Cyclones could emerge as a bracket buster.
Other dark horses like Tennessee (+1400), Kansas (+2500), Gonzaga (+4000), and Indiana (+4000) could see their odds shorten throughout conference tournament week and make some unexpected deep runs.
Learn the best betting strategies for March Madness here!
Strategy For Betting Futures
Futures betting requires monitoring line movements, digging into advanced metrics, and tuning into conference tournaments. Here are some strategic tips:
- Wait for the right buy window: If you have conviction in a top contender like UConn or Houston, wait for a mini meltdown during conference play to buy at peak odds value.
- Bet conference champs: Teams that dominate their conference tournament often sustain momentum into March Madness.
- Follow injuries: If key contributors get hurt before March, fade those teams in futures.
- Study KenPom data: Teams with top 25 offensive and defensive efficiency marks historically fare well in March.
Futures bets tie up your bankroll for an extended timeframe, so have conviction behind all wagers. While upsets define March Madness, buying into the prime contenders at the right price ultimately proves profitable.
Sources:
www.covers.com/ncaab/march-madness/odds
www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/ncaa-basketball/march-madness-odds/
